FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. – Spending time in the critical presidential election state of Florida this week, I thought a lot about what Florida and other states did during the 2018 midterm elections, that might give us some hints as to what will happen in those key states in 2020.Sam Edelman Women's Gala Slide Sandal B076MCL384 7 B(M) US|Saddle Atanado Leather Let’s “brunch” on that this week:
“A Florida Frost?” – Jerusalem Sandals Women's Tal Slide Sandal B075KZ5VJ5 38 Medium EU (7-7.5 US)|Black Senate seat long held by former Sen. Bill Nelson (D) Florida. Florida is always so close I’d rate it a toss-up, but I say a slight advantage for Trump in 2020.
“Penn Station Stall” – Right now I would rate Pennsylvania as the best and biggest chance for a Democrat pick up in the 2020 presidential election. Donald Trump won the Keystone State in 2016 with 48.2 percent of the vote to 47.5 percent for Hillary Clinton. FRYE Women's Phillip Tall Harness Boot B06X3RJJPS 8.5 B(M) US|CognacThe raw margin of victory was just 44,000 votes. Teva Women's Original Universal Sandal B01IPXQVXI 7 B(M) US|Miramar Fade Dark Purple/Multi. I predict Pennsylvania leans strongly to go back into the Democrat’s fold in 2020, and if native son Joe Biden is the nominee, he’ll carry the state over Trump in November.
“Ohio High-Low” – Ohio and its 18 Electoral College votes went to Donald Trump in 2016. It’s a state that is the best predictor of all fifty states. Win Ohio and you’re president. The 2018 election produced mixed results. Call it the status quo election. Sen.J Slides Women's Beauty Fashion Sneaker B01M3PU01L 7.5 B(M) US|Blue Suede Sherrod Brown (D) Ohio easily won reelection. On the other hand, Attorney General Mike DeWine (R) Ohio was elected governor, replacing term-limited Gov. John Kasich (R) Ohio. Democrats and Republicans both kept their incumbent seats in the U.S. House and so that balance stays the same. I rate Ohio as clear advantage for Republicans in 2020.
“Badgering Voters” – BZees Women's Hotshot Hiking Boot B076CTM2R5 5.5 B(M) US|Black. Scott Walker (R) Wisconsin, was defeated in a very close race as he sought a third term. But none of Wisconsin’s U.S. House district flipped, so I say Wisconsin leans to Trump in 2020
“Carolina (North) on My Mind” – North Carolina has become a key toss-up state in past few presidential election cycles, after being a solid red state for decades. But 2018 offered some mixed results. Democrats won the governor’s race beating a Republican incumbent. On the other hand, PUMA Women's Fierce Rope Pleats Wn Sneaker B071X4D53H 7 B(M) US|Puma Black-puma BlackDemocrats and Republicans each held their incumbent U.S. House seats, with one exception. The ninth district seat remains in a toss-up with a special election set for September 2019, which will get huge national press attention and money. Many will view it as a final litmus test on Trump’s viability in North Carolina and nationally in 2020. Right now, I give the GOP a slight advantage to hold North Carolina, but remember Trump only beat Hillary Clinton here by three percentage points.
“Virginia is NOT for All Lovers!” –The sea of “red” hearts in Virginia has indeed turned “blue.” Between 1952 and 2004, Ellie Shoes Women's 609-Vanna Boot B00DGQM814 10 B(M) US|Black Pu, and in 2018 came within one vote of tying Republicans for control of the House of Delegates, and within one vote of controlling the State Senate. Look for Virginia to stay in the “blue” column in 2020.
“’Auto State’ is Not Automatic” – Heavily involved in the auto industry, Michigan has been a reliable blue-collar Democratic state for decades, but often with a penchant for electing Republican governors. This was the closest margin of victory in any state for Donald Trump as he garnered 47.5 percent of the vote,ALDO Women's Blanchette Ballet Flat B076C5FT25 11 B(M) US|Metallic MiscellaneousCircle G Q5063 Wine Cut Out Shortie Boot B07F5ND81G 8.5 B(M) US to 47.27 percent for Hillary Clinton. The difference was just 10,704 votes out of 4.5 million votes cast. Democrats kept a U.S. Senate seat, picked up the Governor’s mansion and flipped two U.S. House seats. I rate the state as leaning to flip back to the Democratic side in 2020.
“Why All of This Matters” – Women's New Dev-9 Round Toe Ballet Flats Ballerina Runs Small Consider Going One Size Up B01MRLS5EV Small / 9 B(M) US|Fuchsia Pu, North Carolina, Ohio, or Georgia. It’s going to be an uphill fight!.
Who is ahead in your state? Who are people chatting about? Just click the comment button to add your voice to the chorus!
Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is the Chief Political Reporter for the five Nexstar Media TV stations that are providing coverage of the 2020 presidential campaign in West Virginia, its five neighboring states of Ohio, Virginia, Kentucky, Maryland and Pennsylvania, and most of the Washington, D.C. media market.
© 2019, Mark Curtis Media, LLC
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