FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. – Spending time in the critical presidential election state of Florida this week, I thought a lot about what Florida and other states did during the 2018 midterm elections, that might give us some hints as to what will happen in those key states in 2020.Cole Haan Women's Grandpro Tennis Leather Lace OX Fashion Sneaker B06ZYWCWZ2 6.5 B(M) US|Anthracite Glitter Let’s “brunch” on that this week:
“A Florida Frost?” – ASICS Women's Torrance Running Shoe B077MDLHL1 8.5 B(M) US|Stone Grey/Frosted Rose Senate seat long held by former Sen. Bill Nelson (D) Florida. Florida is always so close I’d rate it a toss-up, but I say a slight advantage for Trump in 2020.
“Penn Station Stall” – Right now I would rate Pennsylvania as the best and biggest chance for a Democrat pick up in the 2020 presidential election. Donald Trump won the Keystone State in 2016 with 48.2 percent of the vote to 47.5 percent for Hillary Clinton. Skechers Women's Flex Appeal 2.0-Stratosphere B079MDLH7X 6 B(M) US|PinkThe raw margin of victory was just 44,000 votes. Reebok Classic Sneaker B01GRMHT5I 5 D(M) US|Brave Blue/White. I predict Pennsylvania leans strongly to go back into the Democrat’s fold in 2020, and if native son Joe Biden is the nominee, he’ll carry the state over Trump in November.
“Ohio High-Low” – Ohio and its 18 Electoral College votes went to Donald Trump in 2016. It’s a state that is the best predictor of all fifty states. Win Ohio and you’re president. The 2018 election produced mixed results. Call it the status quo election. Sen.Gentle Souls by Kenneth Cole Women's Haddie Low Profile Fashion Sneaker Embossed Fashion Sneaker B0713X77PD 6 M US|Black Embossed Sherrod Brown (D) Ohio easily won reelection. On the other hand, Attorney General Mike DeWine (R) Ohio was elected governor, replacing term-limited Gov. John Kasich (R) Ohio. Democrats and Republicans both kept their incumbent seats in the U.S. House and so that balance stays the same. I rate Ohio as clear advantage for Republicans in 2020.
“Badgering Voters” – adidas Men's Pw Tennis Hu Sneaker B074RPVTC3 4 D(M) US|Tactile Rose / Raw Pink. Scott Walker (R) Wisconsin, was defeated in a very close race as he sought a third term. But none of Wisconsin’s U.S. House district flipped, so I say Wisconsin leans to Trump in 2020
“Carolina (North) on My Mind” – North Carolina has become a key toss-up state in past few presidential election cycles, after being a solid red state for decades. But 2018 offered some mixed results. Democrats won the governor’s race beating a Republican incumbent. On the other hand, Jambu Women's Spirit-Vegan Flat B01HYBLW1S 8.5 C US|Saddle/SangriaDemocrats and Republicans each held their incumbent U.S. House seats, with one exception. The ninth district seat remains in a toss-up with a special election set for September 2019, which will get huge national press attention and money. Many will view it as a final litmus test on Trump’s viability in North Carolina and nationally in 2020. Right now, I give the GOP a slight advantage to hold North Carolina, but remember Trump only beat Hillary Clinton here by three percentage points.
“Virginia is NOT for All Lovers!” –The sea of “red” hearts in Virginia has indeed turned “blue.” Between 1952 and 2004, Skechers Cali Women's Rumbler Wave-New Lassie Slide Sandal B0755W287P 10 B(M) US|Rose Gold, and in 2018 came within one vote of tying Republicans for control of the House of Delegates, and within one vote of controlling the State Senate. Look for Virginia to stay in the “blue” column in 2020.
“’Auto State’ is Not Automatic” – Heavily involved in the auto industry, Michigan has been a reliable blue-collar Democratic state for decades, but often with a penchant for electing Republican governors. This was the closest margin of victory in any state for Donald Trump as he garnered 47.5 percent of the vote,NIKE Women Metcon 4 Training Shoe Grey B071ZF6KXZ 10 B(M) US|White/Metallic Silver-mNew Balance Women's 696 v1 Sneaker B0751GPYQ2 10.5 B(M) US|Toasted Coconut/Sea Salt to 47.27 percent for Hillary Clinton. The difference was just 10,704 votes out of 4.5 million votes cast. Democrats kept a U.S. Senate seat, picked up the Governor’s mansion and flipped two U.S. House seats. I rate the state as leaning to flip back to the Democratic side in 2020.
“Why All of This Matters” – 3N2 Mofo Turf Trainer B00GYOSV3Y 5.5|Red, North Carolina, Ohio, or Georgia. It’s going to be an uphill fight!.
Who is ahead in your state? Who are people chatting about? Just click the comment button to add your voice to the chorus!
Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is the Chief Political Reporter for the five Nexstar Media TV stations that are providing coverage of the 2020 presidential campaign in West Virginia, its five neighboring states of Ohio, Virginia, Kentucky, Maryland and Pennsylvania, and most of the Washington, D.C. media market.
© 2019, Mark Curtis Media, LLC
Photo courtesy: Getty Images